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The spread of '88 Shanghai type‐A hepatitis: A system dynamics model and analysis
Author(s) -
Su MaoKang,
Chen KehHsun,
Wang HuanChen
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
system dynamics review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.491
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1099-1727
pISSN - 0883-7066
DOI - 10.1002/sdr.4260080303
Subject(s) - hepatitis , hepatitis a virus , type (biology) , hepatitis a , incubation period , virology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , epidemic model , econometrics , medicine , disease , mathematics , environmental health , biology , incubation , pathology , ecology , population , biochemistry , virus
This articie examines a general infectious disease model and proposes a new epidemic threshold and an epidemic scale forecasting formula. Then a system dynamics model of an eruptive Spread of type‐A hepatitis in Shanghai in 1988 is presented. Various problems are resolved: simulating the incubation period of type‐A hepatitis; fitting the simulation results to real data; analyzing the reason that the predicted second peak of the eruptive spread did not occur. Short‐and long‐term prospects for recurrence are considered, especially the mechanisms of periodic epidemics and eruptive spreads of type‐A hepatitis. The results of this study have import for the prevention and control of type‐A hepatitis and other infectious diseases.