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A system dynamics model of aircraft carrier survivability
Author(s) -
Coyle R. G.
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
system dynamics review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.491
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1099-1727
pISSN - 0883-7066
DOI - 10.1002/sdr.4260080302
Subject(s) - survivability , offensive , adversary , range (aeronautics) , computer science , outcome (game theory) , system dynamics , operations research , risk analysis (engineering) , aerospace engineering , engineering , computer security , business , economics , mathematical economics , artificial intelligence
The use of aircraft carriers in offensive operations in waters where an enemy can deploy strong air forces is the subject of much debate, and it is sometimes asserted that the carriers could not survive long enough to discharge a mission. This article analyzes that proposition and shows that a wide range of possible outcomes exists, depending on the carrier commander's actions. By considering the fundamental mechanics of the problem, a number of options for technological improvement are suggested, and it is shown that they have widely differing, and sometimes very unexpected, effects on the outcome. The model requires a blend of discrete and continuous modeling, the main features of which are discussed in the Appendix.