Scenarios and simulations for planning Dresdner Bank's E‐day

Confronted with the approaching introduction of euro coins and notes, Dresdner Bank's branch managers had to consider that cash‐related transactions between 17 December 2001 and 28 February 2002 would rise much above the normal level. On top of the regular business, the branches had to cope with an unknown amount of exchange transactions of DM into euro. To avoid chaotic situations in the branches and high extra costs, the branches had to prepare themselves. It was, however, unclear what would happen and which measure would be appropriate for which scenario. The branch manager's uncertainty was high. This article shows that the system dynamics method can be successfully applied even to such non‐typical, short‐term, event‐driven problems. Using a feedback perspective, defining the problem dynamically, creating scenarios, developing models and using simulation experiments does not only help to find better strategies but also improves decision making in unique situations with a short‐term focus such as the introduction of the euro coins and notes. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.