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Tourism dynamics: Cyprus' hotel value chain and profitability
Author(s) -
Georgantzas Nicholas C.
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
system dynamics review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.491
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1099-1727
pISSN - 0883-7066
DOI - 10.1002/sdr.275
Subject(s) - tourism , value (mathematics) , chain (unit) , business , marketing , geography , computer science , physics , archaeology , astronomy , machine learning
In response to the Cyprus Hotel Association's aim to test how Cyprus' year 2010 ofcial strategy may affect tourist arrivals, hotel bed capacity and protability, this study looks at Cyprus' hotel value chain within the island's tourism customer–supplier value chain. A system dynamics simulation model helps compute multiple strategic scenarios of what might happen to Cyprus' tourism over the next 40 years. The faithful reproduction of historical tourism and bed capacity data through a 40‐year time horizon shows the model's usefulness. The computed scenarios assess Cyprus' hotel value‐chain sensitivity to policy parameters, tourism growth and tourism seasonality, along with their potential effects on the hotel value chain and protability. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.