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Quantifying the COVID ‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?
Author(s) -
Rahmandad Hazhir,
Sterman John
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
system dynamics review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.491
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1099-1727
pISSN - 0883-7066
DOI - 10.1002/sdr.1715
Subject(s) - covid-19 , pandemic , vaccination , chess endgame , case fatality rate , epidemic model , disease , demography , medicine , environmental health , immunology , virology , computer science , outbreak , infectious disease (medical specialty) , sociology , pathology , artificial intelligence , population
Eradication of COVID‐19 is out of reach. Are we close to a “new normal” in which people can leave behind restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) yet face a tolerable burden of disease? The answer depends on the ongoing risks versus communities' tolerance for those risks. Using a detailed model of the COVID‐19 pandemic spanning 93 countries, we estimate the biological and behavioral factors determining the risks and responses, and project the likely course of COVID‐19. Infection fatality rates have fallen significantly due to vaccination, prior infections, better treatments, and the less severe Omicron variant. Yet based on their estimated tolerance for deaths, most nations are not ready to live with COVID‐19 without any NPIs. Across the world the increased transmissibility of Omicron, combined with the decay of immunity, leads to repeated episodes of reinfections, hospitalizations, and deaths, complicating the emergence of a new normal in many nations. © 2022 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.