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Quantifying hydrologic alteration in an area lacking current reference conditions—The Mississippi alluvial plain of the south‐central United States
Author(s) -
Hart Rhean M.,
Breaker Brian K.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
river research and applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.679
H-Index - 94
eISSN - 1535-1467
pISSN - 1535-1459
DOI - 10.1002/rra.3427
Subject(s) - streamflow , current (fluid) , hydrology (agriculture) , streams , channelized , environmental science , alluvial plain , alluvium , geology , drainage basin , geography , oceanography , geomorphology , computer network , telecommunications , paleontology , cartography , geotechnical engineering , computer science
Quantifying hydrologic alteration in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) of the south‐central United States is particularly difficult because of the lack of current reference, or even relatively undisturbed, streams and associated streamflow data. Impacts, such as water withdrawals for agriculture, weirs, dams, channelization, and other forms of regulation, within the MAP increased substantially beginning around 1960 suggesting that streamflow has since been altered. Using historical streamflow and climate data and explanatory variables, the U.S. Geological Survey developed random forest regression models to estimate expected reference monthly streamflows (pre‐1960) at 76 sites in the MAP and two adjacent Level III Ecoregions. To compensate for the lack of current reference stream sites in the study area, the pre‐1960 streamflow data were used as a surrogate to estimate current streamflow conditions without anthropogenic influence (inferring current reference conditions). Overall, nearly every site within the study area had less zero‐flow days than what historically has been observed and there were more low‐pulse spells. However, the frequency of floods remained relatively consistent.