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An explicit formula for minimizing the infected peak in an SIR epidemic model when using a fixed number of complete lockdowns
Author(s) -
Sontag Eduardo D.
Publication year - 2023
Publication title -
international journal of robust and nonlinear control
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.361
H-Index - 106
eISSN - 1099-1239
pISSN - 1049-8923
DOI - 10.1002/rnc.5701
Subject(s) - covid-19 , set (abstract data type) , epidemic model , social distance , computer science , mathematics , mathematical economics , medicine , virology , outbreak , population , disease , environmental health , infectious disease (medical specialty) , programming language
Careful timing of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing may avoid high “second waves” of infections of COVID‐19. This article asks what should be the timing of a set of K complete‐lockdowns of prespecified lengths (such as two weeks) so as to minimize the peak of the infective compartment. Perhaps surprisingly, it is possible to give an explicit and easily computable rule for when each lockdown should commence. Simulations are used to show that the rule remains fairly accurate even if lockdowns are not perfect.