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Economic Project Risk Assessment in Remediation Projects Prior to Construction: Methodology Development and Case Study Application
Author(s) -
Brinkhoff Petra,
Norin Malin,
Norrman Jenny,
Rosén Lars,
Ek Kristine
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
remediation journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.762
H-Index - 27
eISSN - 1520-6831
pISSN - 1051-5658
DOI - 10.1002/rem.21428
Subject(s) - environmental remediation , risk analysis (engineering) , risk assessment , probabilistic logic , probabilistic risk assessment , project risk management , factory (object oriented programming) , sustainability , risk management , computer science , engineering , project management , construction engineering , reliability engineering , business , systems engineering , project management triangle , ecology , computer security , finance , contamination , artificial intelligence , biology , programming language
Probabilistic economic analysis, including uncertainty of probabilities and consequences of project risks, is not widely used in remediation projects. This article presents a project risk assessment (PRA) method to identify, quantify, and analyze risks in remediation projects. The suggested method is probabilistic and includes uncertainty analysis of input variables based on expert judgment. It was originally developed as a part of a sustainability assessment tool, but is viable as a stand‐alone tool for remediation projects. The method is applied to a case study: a former paint factory that is being redeveloped into a residential area. The PRA method is used for analyzing and comparing the project risks associated with four remediation options, all including excavation but with different degrees of onsite treatment. The result of the case study application shows which alternative has the lowest mean risk cost, the highest probability to have the lowest risk cost, and how the risk costs are distributed, but also, importantly, helps the user to prioritize between risk‐reduction measures. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals