Exploring the assimilation of IASI radiances in forecasting polar lows

Abstract We studied the use of IASI data to improve the forecasts of extreme weather events in the Arctic region. For this purpose, the HARMONIE/Norway regional model was used. A set of 366 IASI channels was initially chosen from the ECMWF archived database. Active channels showing the best fit with the analysis system were selected by applying a multi‐step monitoring technique. The IASI data were assimilated together with most of the available conventional and operational satellite observations using a three‐dimensional variational data assimilation system. Four experiments with cyclic assimilations and subsequent 48‐hour forecasts were performed during the IPY‐THORPEX campaign period to evaluate the impact of the IASI data and the campaign observations on the hydrostatic HARMONIE/Norway analyses and forecasts. The assessment of the degrees of freedom for signals on the analysis showed that incorporating the IASI data in the assimilation system improved the contribution of the other observations. The utilization of an energy norm‐based approach proved the sensitivity of the forecasts to the IASI channels in cases dominated by dynamic instabilities leading to quickly developing weather systems like, for example, polar lows. Comparison of the HARMONIE/Norway forecasts against independent observations and the ECMWF analyses showed a clear positive impact of the IASI data on geopotential fields in mid‐troposphere and in the troposphere in general, respectively. We found small but significant positive impact on the temperature and humidity in the lower troposphere. A case‐study showed positive impact of IASI radiances on the analysis and forecasts of a polar low. The impact on the forecasts lasted up to 24 hours when extra in situ campaign data were excluded from the analysis, and up to 36 hours when the campaign data were assimilated together with the IASI radiances. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society