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The Central European limited‐area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN‐LAEF
Author(s) -
Wang Yong,
Bellus Martin,
Wittmann Christoph,
Steinheimer Martin,
Weidle Florian,
Kann Alexander,
IvatekŠahdan Stjepan,
Tian Weihong,
Ma Xulin,
Tascu Simona,
Bazile Eric
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.751
Subject(s) - downscaling , ensemble forecasting , range (aeronautics) , computer science , meteorology , scale (ratio) , environmental science , numerical weather prediction , representation (politics) , physics , aerospace engineering , engineering , precipitation , quantum mechanics , politics , political science , law
The Central European limited‐area ensemble forecasting system ALADIN‐LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational—Limited‐Area Ensemble Forecasting) has been developed within the framework of ALADIN international cooperation and the Regional Cooperation for Limited‐Area modelling in Central Europe (RC LACE). It was put into pre‐operation in March 2007. The main feature of the pre‐operational ALADIN‐LAEF was the dynamical downscaling of the global ensemble forecast from the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In 2009, ALADIN‐LAEF was upgraded with several methods for dealing with the forecast uncertainties to improve the forecast quality. These are: (1) the blending method, which combines the large‐scale uncertainty generated by ECMWF singular vectors with the small‐scale perturbations resolved by ALADIN breeding into atmospheric initial condition perturbations; (2) the multi‐physics approach, wherein different physics schemes are used for different forecast members to account for model uncertainties; and (3) the non‐cycling surface breeding technique, which generates surface initial condition perturbations. This article illustrates the technical details of the updated ALADIN‐LAEF and investigates its performance. Detailed verification of the upgraded ALADIN‐LAEF and a comparison with its first implementation (dynamical downscaling of ECMWF ensemble forecasts) are presented for a two‐month period in summer 2007. The results show better performance and skill for the upgraded system due to the better representation of forecast uncertainties. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society