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Seasonal predictability in winter over eastern Asia using the JMA global model
Author(s) -
Kobayashi Chiaki,
Takano Kiyoharu,
Kusunoki Shoji,
Sugi Masato,
Kitoh Akio
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.49712656707
Subject(s) - predictability , climatology , boreal , northern hemisphere , environmental science , sea surface temperature , atmospheric circulation , geography , atmospheric sciences , geology , mathematics , statistics , archaeology
To study seasonal predictability over the eastern Asia region, we carried out seasonal simulation experiments with a T63L30 Atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the Japan Meteorological Agency. Integrations over 120 days for four cases of 5‐member ensembles were carried out with the use of the observed sea surface temperature (SST). It was found that simulated scores of ensemble‐mean forecast 500 hPa height calculated over eastern Asia in boreal winter, at least during El Niño events, were more skilful than those over the whole northern hemisphere. Observations show that the Western Pacific (WP) pattern, which is one of low‐frequency modes, has some statistical correlation with SST anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific. The model used in this experiment has an ability to reproduce the WP pattern with reasonable intensity. This may be one of the reasons for the high skill demonstrated over the eastern Asia region in boreal winter.