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Dynamics of fine‐scale variables versus averaged observables in a T21L3 quasi‐geostrophic model
Author(s) -
Vannitsem S.,
Nicolis C.
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.49712455103
Subject(s) - predictability , geostrophic wind , lyapunov exponent , mathematics , observable , scale (ratio) , statistical physics , lyapunov function , statistics , climatology , physics , nonlinear system , geology , quantum mechanics
The dynamics of space‐ and time‐averaged observables of a 3‐level quasi‐geostrophic model is investigated and compared with that of the fine‐scale variables, with emphasis on the role of the initial error field on predictability. The invariance of the largest Lyapunov exponent against averaging of up to 10 days is established. Some improvements of predictability of the averaged variables turn out to be possible, at least for certain classes of initial perturbations. Finally, a map of error distribution in space and a classification of weather regimes are derived on the basis of the average properties of the Lyapunov vectors.