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Short‐range predictability of the atmosphere: Mechanisms for superexponential error growth
Author(s) -
Nicolis C.,
Vannitsem S.,
Royer J.F.
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.49712152312
Subject(s) - predictability , atmosphere (unit) , range (aeronautics) , environmental science , meteorology , atmospheric sciences , computer science , mathematics , geology , statistics , materials science , physics , composite material
Recently it has been established, using simple mathematical models of chaos, low‐order models, and large numerical models of the atmosphere, that small errors grow in the mean in a superexponential manner. In this paper the mechanisms behind this behaviour are examined with special emphasis on the non‐orthogonality of the eigenvectors of the linearized evolution operator and the variability of the local Lyapunov exponents on the attractor. The study reveals a picture that is far more complex and system‐dependent than what has been advanced so far in the literature. The general ideas are illustrated by Lorenz's low‐order atmospheric model for which a simple phenomenological model of error growth is developed and tested successfully against the simulations.