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An analogue‐dynamical long‐range numerical weather prediction system incorporating historical evolution
Author(s) -
Jianping Huang,
Yuhong Yi,
Shaowu Wang,
Jifen Chou
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.49711951111
Subject(s) - numerical weather prediction , range (aeronautics) , weather prediction , climatology , meteorology , environmental science , geology , geography , aerospace engineering , engineering
It is convenient to regard a predicted dynamical field as a small disturbance superimposed on a historical analogue field. A Statistical technique can then be used in combination with a dynamical forecast. Using this approach, a coupled atmosphere/earth‐surface analogue‐dynamical model has been formulated and applied to seasonal prediction. This approach facilitates the use of information contained both in the historical data‐set and in the initial field in improving the dynamical model (based solely on the latter) and shows some predictive skill.