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Probabilistic Aspects of Error Growth In Atmospheric Dynamics
Author(s) -
Nicolis C.
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.49711850508
Subject(s) - generalization , probabilistic logic , atmosphere (unit) , variable (mathematics) , realization (probability) , mathematics , probability distribution , atmospheric dispersion modeling , statistical physics , statistics , meteorology , mathematical analysis , physics , air pollution , chemistry , organic chemistry
A probabilistic approach accounting for the variability of error growth in the atmosphere is developed and applied to an idealized low‐order atmospheric circulation model. Error growth in a single‐realization, ensemble‐averaged error versus time and the time‐dependent as well as the asymptotic probability distribution of errors are determined. A wide dispersion around the mean is found, showing clearly the inadequacy of a description that is limited to averaged properties only. A self‐consistent one‐variable, two‐parameter model of error dynamics is constructed in the form of a stochastically driven logistic equation, and the results are shown to be in good quantitative agreement with the simulation of the full equations. A generalization to more realistic atmospheric models is also outlined.