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Onset of sahelian drought viewed as a fluctuation‐induced transition
Author(s) -
Demaree G. R.,
Nicolis C.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.49711649110
Subject(s) - stability (learning theory) , jump , precipitation , residence time (fluid dynamics) , climatology , mathematics , statistical physics , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , physics , geology , geotechnical engineering , quantum mechanics , machine learning , computer science
Abstract A statistical analysis of representative sets of rainfall data in the west Sahel region is performed and a jump transition in the late sixties is detected. It is suggested that the main features associated with the record can be accounted for by a fluctuation‐induced transition between two stable precipitation regimes: a ‘humid’ and a ‘dry’ state. A minimal model involving the dominant nonlinearities is constructed and its parameters determined from the data. an attempt is made to arrive at a statistical prediction of the duration of the alternate regimes through the relative stability of the two stable states as deduced from mean values and higher moments of residence times. the behaviour predicted by the model is in good qualitative agreement with the record.