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Evaluation and statistical downscaling of East Asian summer monsoon forecasting in BCC and MOHC seasonal prediction systems
Author(s) -
Liu Ying,
Ren HongLi,
Scaife Adam A.,
Li Chaofan
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.3405
Subject(s) - downscaling , climatology , predictability , environmental science , precipitation , monsoon , east asia , anticyclone , east asian monsoon , climate model , climate change , china , meteorology , geography , geology , oceanography , physics , archaeology , quantum mechanics
In seasonal climate predictions, the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is still a challenge, in spite of the wide usage of coupled climate models. Therefore, in this article the predictability of the monsoon including the atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies is investigated, based on the reforecast data during 1992–2011 in two coupled prediction systems: GloSea5 from the Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) and BCC_CSM1.1m from the Beijing Climate Center (BCC). The results show that the interannual variability of 850 hPa zonal wind over East Asia and the northwest Pacific can be well reproduced, and the prediction skill is significant in both systems. The Philippine anticyclone is highly predictable over the tropical northwest Pacific, and it transfers the predictable signals from the winter El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) into the climate prediction in East Asia and rainfall prediction in the Yangtze River basin. Two dynamical indices of the EASM show that the prediction skills in these two systems are comparable. BCC_CSM1.1m tends to overestimate the coupling between the monsoon and ENSO, while GloSea5 shows a similar magnitude to the observations. Besides, a simple statistical downscaling method is adopted in this article based on the predictable circulation data, which provides an efficient tool to improve the raw rainfall forecast skill over China.