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Probabilistic precipitation rate estimates with space‐based infrared sensors
Author(s) -
Kirstetter PierreEmmanuel,
Karbalaee Negar,
Hsu Kuolin,
Hong Yang
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.3243
Subject(s) - quantitative precipitation estimation , precipitation , environmental science , satellite , probabilistic logic , hydrometeorology , meteorology , remote sensing , computer science , artificial intelligence , geography , aerospace engineering , engineering
The uncertainty structure of satellite‐based passive infrared quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is largely unknown at fine spatio‐temporal scales, and requires more than just one deterministic “best estimate” to adequately cope with the intermittent, highly skewed distribution that characterizes precipitation. An investigation of this subject has been carried out within the framework of the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks‐Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN‐CCS). A new method, PIRSO (Probabilistic QPE using InfraRed Satellite Observations), is proposed to advance the use of uncertainty as an integral part of QPE. Probability distributions of precipitation rates are computed instead of deterministic values using a model quantifying the relation between satellite infrared brightness temperatures and the corresponding “true” precipitation rate. Ensembles of brightness temperatures‐to‐precipitation rate relationships are derived at a 30 min/0.04° scale. This approach conditions probabilistic quantitative precipitation estimates (PQPE) on the precipitation rate and typology. PIRSO's components were estimated based on a data sample covering two warm seasons over the conterminous USA. Precipitation probability maps outperform the deterministic PERSIANN‐CCS QPE. PIRSO is shown to mitigate systematic biases from deterministic retrievals, quantify uncertainty, and advance the monitoring of precipitation extremes. It also provides the basis for precipitation probability maps and satellite precipitation ensembles needed for satellite multi‐sensor merging of precipitation, early warning and mitigation of hydrometeorological hazards, and hydrological modelling.