Predictability of downward propagation of major sudden stratospheric warmings

Major sudden stratospheric warmings ( SSWs ) are striking phenomena of wintertime stratospheric circulation usually defined as a reversal of zonal mean circulation from westerlies to easterlies. SSWs often have significant impact on tropospheric circulation and cause anomalies in surface climate lasting for up to 2 months. For this reason, dynamics and predictability of SSW receive considerable attention. It is however well‐known that not all SSWs cause significant, long‐lasting impact on the troposphere. In order to explain differences in tropospheric impacts following SSWs , several reasons have been previously proposed, including differences in type of SSW (split or displacement), persistence of stratospheric anomalies, preconditioning of the tropospheric circulation, and whether or not SSW was accompanied by a planetary wave reflection in the stratosphere. Here we address the predictability of tropospheric impacts by SSWs by seeking early precursors of the impacts. We separate midwinter SSWs into two groups: those which are followed by significant, long‐lasting impacts on the tropospheric circulation (defined in terms of anomalous Northern Annular Mode) and those not followed by significant anomalies in the annular mode. We show that SSWs characterised by a more negative Northern Annular Mode index in the lower stratosphere around 150 hPa and enhanced wave activity propagation to the stratosphere during the first few days following the central date have a larger probability of being followed by tropospheric impact, both in reanalyses and in climate model runs. These anomalies play a more important role in the subsequent downward propagation of the signal to the troposphere than the type of SSW : whether it is a split or a displacement, or absorptive or reflective SSW . We propose that using these anomalies as precursors of tropospheric impacts of SSW can enhance climate predictability.