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Sensitivity of the AROME ensemble to initial and surface perturbations during HyMeX
Author(s) -
Bouttier François,
Raynaud Laure,
Nuissier Olivier,
Ménétrier Benjamin
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.2622
Subject(s) - perturbation (astronomy) , data assimilation , probabilistic logic , environmental science , ensemble forecasting , sensitivity (control systems) , computer science , meteorology , physics , artificial intelligence , quantum mechanics , electronic engineering , engineering
The AROME‐EPS convection‐permitting ensemble prediction system has been evaluated over the HyMeX‐SOP1 period. Objective verification scores are computed using dense observing networks prepared for the HyMeX experiment. In probabilistic terms, the AROME‐EPS ensemble performs better than the AROME‐France deterministic prediction system, and a state‐of‐the‐art ensemble at a lower resolution. The strengths and weaknesses of AROME‐EPS are discussed. Here, impact experiments are used to study perturbation schemes for the initial conditions and the model surface. Both have a significant effect on the ensemble performance. The interactions between the perturbations of lateral boundaries, initial conditions and surface perturbations are studied. The consistency between initial and lateral perturbations is found to be unimportant from a meteorological point of view. Ensemble data assimilation is not as effective as a simpler surface perturbation scheme, and it is noted that both approaches could be usefully combined.