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Hurricane maximum potential intensity equilibrium
Author(s) -
Kieu Chanh
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.2556
Subject(s) - radiative transfer , radiative cooling , domain (mathematical analysis) , stability (learning theory) , environmental science , meteorology , scale (ratio) , statistical physics , physics , mechanics , computer science , mathematics , mathematical analysis , quantum mechanics , machine learning
This study presents a minimal model to examine the stability of the hurricane maximum potential intensity (MPI) equilibrium, based on the evolution of several hurricane fundamental scales. It is shown that this hurricane‐scale model contains MPI as an asymptotically stable spiral point under the wind‐induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) feedback mechanism. Furthermore, the hurricane development is characterized by two different time‐scales instead of a simple linear growth, as often assumed in previous studies. Inclusion of radiative cooling reduces the MPI limit, but the MPI equilibrium in general is structurally stable. In particular, radiative cooling will modify the basin of attraction of the MPI equilibrium and create a domain in the phase space of the hurricane scales such that a vortex would not develop if its initial condition falls within this domain. Potential mechanisms that can further unfold the stability of the MPI equilibrium will also be discussed.