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Scale‐dependent verification of ensemble forecasts
Author(s) -
Jung Thomas,
Leutbecher Martin
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.255
Subject(s) - climatology , scale (ratio) , probabilistic logic , northern hemisphere , meteorology , wavenumber , ensemble forecasting , environmental science , range (aeronautics) , numerical weather prediction , synoptic scale meteorology , southern hemisphere , atmospheric sciences , geology , computer science , geography , physics , artificial intelligence , cartography , materials science , optics , composite material
Abstract A scale‐dependent verification of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) in the Northern Hemisphere is presented. The relationship between spread and skill is investigated alongside probabilistic forecast skill for planetary, synoptic and subsynoptic spectral bands. Since the ECMWF model is a spectral model, the three spectral bands have been isolated using total and zonal wavenumber filters. Diagnosed overdispersiveness of ECMWF EPS in the short range is primarily due to excessive amounts of spread on synoptic scales. Diagnosed underdispersiveness of the ensemble beyond day 5 of the forecast can be explained by too little spread on both synoptic and planetary scales. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society