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A review on Arctic sea‐ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time‐scales
Author(s) -
Guemas Virginie,
BlanchardWrigglesworth Edward,
Chevallier Matthieu,
Day Jonathan J.,
Déqué Michel,
DoblasReyes Francisco J.,
Fučkar Neven S.,
Germe Agathe,
Hawkins Ed,
Keeley Sarah,
Koenigk Torben,
Salas y Mélia David,
Tietsche Steffen
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.2401
Subject(s) - predictability , sea ice , climatology , environmental science , arctic ice pack , arctic , arctic sea ice decline , cryosphere , advection , forcing (mathematics) , drift ice , oceanography , geology , physics , quantum mechanics , thermodynamics
Sea ice plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy and water budget and has a substantial impact on local and remote atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Predictions of Arctic sea‐ice conditions a few months to a few years in advance could be of interest for stakeholders. This article presents a review of the potential sources of Arctic sea‐ice predictability on these time‐scales. Predictability mainly originates from persistence or advection of sea‐ice anomalies, interactions with the ocean and atmosphere and changes in radiative forcing. After estimating the inherent potential predictability limit with state‐of‐the‐art models, current sea‐ice forecast systems are described, together with their performance. Finally, some challenges and issues in sea‐ice forecasting are presented, along with suggestions for future research priorities.