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A nonlinear oscillator describing storm track variability
Author(s) -
Ambaum Maarten H. P.,
Novak Lenka
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.2352
Subject(s) - baroclinity , storm , nonlinear system , storm track , meteorology , variable (mathematics) , statistical physics , instability , geology , climatology , mechanics , atmospheric sciences , physics , mathematics , mathematical analysis , quantum mechanics
We construct a two‐variable model that describes the interaction between local baroclinicity and eddy heat flux in order to understand aspects of the variance in storm tracks. It is a heuristic model for diabatically forced baroclinic instability close to baroclinic neutrality. The two‐variable model has the structure of a nonlinear oscillator. It exhibits some realistic properties of observed storm track variability, most notably the intermittent nature of eddy activity. This suggests that apparent threshold behaviour can be more accurately and succinctly described by a simple nonlinearity. An analogy is drawn with the triggering of convective events.