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New schemes to perturb sea‐surface temperature and soil moisture content in MOGREPS
Author(s) -
Tennant Warren,
Beare Sarah
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.2202
Subject(s) - probabilistic logic , environmental science , water content , sea surface temperature , northern hemisphere , climatology , southern hemisphere , moisture , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , mathematics , geography , physics , statistics , geology , geotechnical engineering
This article investigates two schemes that perturb sea‐surface temperatures ( SST s) and soil moisture content ( SMC ) in the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System ( MOGREPS ), to address a known deficiency of a lack of ensemble spread near the surface. Results from a two‐month‐long trial during the Northern Hemisphere summer show positive benefits from these schemes. These include a decrease in the spread deficit of surface temperature and improved probabilistic verification scores. SST perturbations exhibit a stronger impact than SMC perturbations but, when combined, the increased spread from the two schemes is cumulative. A regional ensemble system driven by the global ensemble members largely reflects the same changes seen in the global ensemble but cycling fields, like SMC , between successive regional forecasts does show some benefit.