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Data‐based mechanistic modelling of tidally affected river reaches for flood warning purposes: an example on the River Dee, UK
Author(s) -
Smith P. J.,
Beven K. J.,
Horsburgh K.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1002/qj.1926
Subject(s) - environmental science , hydrology (agriculture) , data assimilation , flood myth , flood warning , flood forecasting , water level , meteorology , warning system , streamflow , estuary , weir , climatology , geology , oceanography , geography , drainage basin , computer science , cartography , telecommunications , geotechnical engineering , archaeology
This article discusses a coupled water level forecasting system constructed for the River Dee (UK) using parsimonious, physically interpretable, time series models. Tidal forecasts, provided by a simple harmonic model, and observed water levels at the upstream boundary are used to drive a nonlinear hydrological model which forecasts water levels at three gauged sites on the flood plain. The assimilation of observed data and use of the model for real‐time forecasting is presented. The results generated indicate that the forecasts of river water can be both timely and accurate except close to the tidal boundary where the the tide is affected by the weir at Chester. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

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