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An examination of the relative impact of type I and type II error rates in phase II drug screening trial queues
Author(s) -
Hutson Alan D.,
Wilding Gregory E.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
pharmaceutical statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.421
H-Index - 38
eISSN - 1539-1612
pISSN - 1539-1604
DOI - 10.1002/pst.529
Subject(s) - type i and type ii errors , phase (matter) , clinical trial , word error rate , computer science , medicine , set (abstract data type) , relative phase , type (biology) , approximation error , queue , statistics , econometrics , mathematics , algorithm , artificial intelligence , chemistry , biology , organic chemistry , programming language , ecology
In this note, we highlight the fact that the choice of type I and type II error rates should not simply be set at traditional levels in the phase II clinical trial setting when considering the relative success rate of previous trials in a given disease setting. For diseases in which it is rare that a new compound is active, we argue that more stringent type I error rates in the phase II setting may be more important relative to relaxing the type II error rates. The paper itself is more of a ‘thought’ experiment on this topic such that specific clinical trial settings will require specific applications of this approach. This is due in part to the fact that the real‐world setting is more complex relative to overall decision process in terms of moving from phase II to phase III trials than our basic illustrative model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.