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SimBritain : a spatial microsimulation approach to population dynamics
Author(s) -
Ballas Dimitris,
Clarke Graham,
Dorling Danny,
Eyre Heather,
Thomas Bethan,
Rossiter David
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
population, space and place
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.398
H-Index - 68
eISSN - 1544-8452
pISSN - 1544-8444
DOI - 10.1002/psp.351
Subject(s) - microsimulation , context (archaeology) , census , population , computer science , small area estimation , econometrics , regional science , operations research , range (aeronautics) , geography , transport engineering , estimation , economics , engineering , sociology , demography , management , archaeology , aerospace engineering
Abstract In this paper we present an account of a 3‐year research project that is aimed at dynamically simulating urban and regional populations in Britain. In the context of this project we are using data from the 1991 UK Census Small Area Statistics (SAS) and the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), in order to dynamically simulate the entire population of Britain into 2021 at the small area level. This paper discusses the structure, aims and objectives of SimBritain and presents some preliminary results. Firstly, alternative spatial microsimulation strategies are discussed and their advantages and drawbacks are outlined. Next, the difficulties in calibrating and validating dynamic microsimulation models such as SimBritain are highlighted and ways to tackle these difficulties are explored. The paper then presents some model outputs that highlight the geographical variation of a wide range of socio‐economic variables through the 1990s. Moreover, in light of these outputs, the paper discusses the potential of SimBritain for policy analysis. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.