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The potential distribution and dynamics of important vectors Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus in China under climate change scenarios: an ecological niche modelling approach
Author(s) -
Liu Boyang,
Gao Xiang,
Zheng Keren,
Ma Jun,
Jiao Zhihui,
Xiao Jianhua,
Wang Hongbin
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
pest management science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.296
H-Index - 125
eISSN - 1526-4998
pISSN - 1526-498X
DOI - 10.1002/ps.5861
Subject(s) - ecological niche , vector (molecular biology) , ecology , niche , temperate climate , culex quinquefasciatus , culex pipiens , climate change , habitat , range (aeronautics) , distribution (mathematics) , china , mosquito control , biology , culex , geography , malaria , aedes aegypti , mathematical analysis , biochemistry , materials science , mathematics , archaeology , larva , gene , composite material , recombinant dna , immunology
BACKGROUND Intense studies have been carried out on the effects of climate change on vector‐borne diseases and vectors. Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus are two medically concerned mosquito species in temperate and tropical areas, which serve as important disease‐transmitting pests of a variety of diseases. The ongoing geographical expansion of these mosquitoes has brought an increasing threat to public health. RESULTS Based on mosquito occurrence records and high‐resolution environmental layers, an ecological niche model was established to model their current and future potential distribution in China. Our model showed that the current suitable area for Cx. p. pallens is distributed in the central, eastern and northern parts of China, while Cx. p. quinquefasciatus is distributed in vast areas in southern China. Under future climate change scenarios, both species are predicted to expand their range to varying degrees and RCP 8.5 provides the largest expansion. Northward core shifts will occur in ranges of both species. Environmental variables which have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes were also revealed by our model. CONCLUSION Severe habitat expansion of vectors is likely to occur in the future 21st century. Our models mapped the high‐risk areas and risk factors which needs to be paid attention. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological surveys and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of vector‐borne diseases. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry