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Analysis of Natech risk induced by lightning strikes in floating roof tanks based on the Bayesian network model
Author(s) -
Cheng Yulong,
Luo Yun
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
process safety progress
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.378
H-Index - 40
eISSN - 1547-5913
pISSN - 1066-8527
DOI - 10.1002/prs.12164
Subject(s) - bayesian network , lightning (connector) , engineering , risk assessment , conditional probability , accident (philosophy) , causality (physics) , bayesian probability , roof , forensic engineering , risk analysis (engineering) , computer science , statistics , computer security , artificial intelligence , structural engineering , mathematics , power (physics) , physics , quantum mechanics , medicine , philosophy , epistemology
Based on the Bayesian network, a risk assessment model of Natech was established to assess the risks associated with lightning. Based on existing research results and expert analyses, a causal relationship between different parameters was constructed, and the conditional probability values of nodes were determined. This Natech risk assessment model was used to predict and analyze the fire explosion of inner floating roof tanks caused by lightning. The results showed that Natech risk assessment models by the Bayesian network could clearly express the direct causality of risk factors and perform both predictive and diagnostic analyses.