Recent climatic trend and thermal response of permafrost in Salluit, Northern Quebec, Canada

Abstract Not all places may in fact warm under global change scenarios. This paper presents an example of climatic cooling from northern Quebec, Canada. Ground temperature measurements along the southern shore of Hudson Strait, northern Quebec indicate a cooling trend over the last seven years (1987‐93). Long‐term air temperature records show that this area has actually experienced continuous cooling for more than 40 years. Related studies suggest that the cooling is likely to continue due to freshening of subpolar water in the North Atlantic and Labrador Sea area. A one‐dimensional geothermal model was used to simulate the effect of continued cooling on permafrost thermal regime in Salluit, northern Quebec. The results show that, if the climatic trend continues for the next 50 years, the thickness of the active layer would decrease by 30cm (from 2.3 to 2.0 m) in gneiss and by 20cm (from 1.3 to 1.1 m) in till. Permafrost temperature at 20 m depth would decrease by 0.65 °C. Under the cooling scenario, rate of permafrost creep and slope activities would be reduced. Ice‐wedge regrowth would continue, and the buried ice wedges may even become reactivated. The results also indicate that regional snow precipitation data cannot be used directly in predicting ground thermal regimes.