Premium
Permafrost zonation in Russia under anthropogenic climatic change
Author(s) -
Nelson Frederick E.,
Anisimov Oleg A.
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
permafrost and periglacial processes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.867
H-Index - 76
eISSN - 1099-1530
pISSN - 1045-6740
DOI - 10.1002/ppp.3430040206
Subject(s) - permafrost , thermokarst , climate change , global warming , physical geography , latitude , geology , climatology , greenhouse gas , high latitude , environmental science , earth science , geography , oceanography , geodesy
Warming induced by the hypothesized greenhouse effect will have profound consequences for permafrost distribution throughout the high‐latitude regions of the globe. Two scenarios of climate change based on the palaeo‐reconstruction method widely employed by Russian scientists were used in conjunction with a model that produces zonal maps of permafrost distribution. Changes associated with both 1.2°C and 2.0°C warming of the mean global temperature are amplified in the high latitudes, which results in the potential for a large reduction of the area underlain by continuous permafrost. Thermokarst development is likely to be particularly acute in the West Siberian plain, where the climate model suggests that conditions will become marginal for the maintenance of permafrost.