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The energy payback time of advanced crystalline silicon PV modules in 2020: a prospective study
Author(s) -
Mann Sander A.,
WildScholten Mariska J.,
Fthenakis Vasilis M.,
Sark Wilfried G.J.H.M.,
Sinke Wim C.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
progress in photovoltaics: research and applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.286
H-Index - 131
eISSN - 1099-159X
pISSN - 1062-7995
DOI - 10.1002/pip.2363
Subject(s) - electricity , photovoltaic system , crystalline silicon , payback period , environmental economics , cost of electricity by source , life cycle assessment , work (physics) , electricity generation , environmental science , business , production (economics) , engineering , electrical engineering , economics , mechanical engineering , solar cell , power (physics) , physics , quantum mechanics , macroeconomics
The photovoltaic (PV) market is experiencing vigorous growth, whereas prices are dropping rapidly. This growth has in large part been possible through public support, deserved for its promise to produce electricity at a low cost to the environment. It is therefore important to monitor and minimize environmental impacts associated with PV technologies. In this work, we forecast the environmental performance of crystalline silicon technologies in 2020, the year in which electricity from PV is anticipated to be competitive with wholesale electricity costs all across Europe. Our forecasts are based on technological scenario development and a prospective life cycle assessment with a thorough uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We estimate that the energy payback time at an in‐plane irradiation of 1700 kWh/(m 2 year) of crystalline silicon modules can be reduced to below 0.5 years by 2020, which is less than half of the current energy payback time. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.