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Evaluation of population parameters and mathematical strategies for the calculation of prenatal risk of Down syndrome in the first trimester of pregnancy
Author(s) -
MartínezMorillo Eduardo,
García Belén Prieto,
Calvo Francisco Moreno,
Álvarez Francisco V.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
prenatal diagnosis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.956
H-Index - 97
eISSN - 1097-0223
pISSN - 0197-3851
DOI - 10.1002/pd.2937
Subject(s) - medicine , false positive rate , obstetrics , population , pregnancy , prenatal diagnosis , prenatal screening , fetus , second trimester , first trimester , gynecology , statistics , mathematics , biology , environmental health , genetics
Objective To evaluate the population parameters applied to the calculation of risk for Down syndrome (DS) in the first trimester screening (FTS) and the comparison of performance obtained including or excluding maternal age from the mathematical algorithm. Methods Three different calculation engines for prenatal risk of DS were developed on the basis of the population parameters from the Serum, Urine and Ultrasound Screening Study, the Fetal Medicine Foundation, and a combination of both of them. These calculators were evaluated in 14 645 first trimester pregnant women, including 59 DS affected fetuses, comparing their performance with that obtained by our commercial software Elipse® (Perkin Elmer Life and Analytical Sciences, Turku, Finland). Advanced first trimester screening (AFS) strategy was also analyzed, and a hybrid strategy (FTS + AFS) was evaluated. Results By selecting population parameters from the Serum, Urine and Ultrasound Screening Study, the detection rate increased from 76% (Elipse) to 86% with a small increase in the false positive rate (FPR), from 3.3% to 3.7%, respectively. DS screening performance significantly improved by using the hybrid strategy (AFS in pregnant women under 35 years and FTS in pregnant women over 35 years), with a 92% detection rate (FPR: 3.9%). Conclusions In the present study, a new hybrid screening strategy has been proposed to achieve DS detection rates higher than 90%, for a convenient <4% FPR. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.