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Risk prediction of fever in neutropenia in children with cancer: A step towards individually tailored supportive therapy?
Author(s) -
Wicki Silvia,
Keisker André,
Aebi Christoph,
Leibundgut Kurt,
Hirt Andreas,
Ammann Roland A.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
pediatric blood and cancer
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.116
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1545-5017
pISSN - 1545-5009
DOI - 10.1002/pbc.21726
Subject(s) - medicine , bacteremia , neutropenia , poisson regression , confidence interval , blood cancer , chemotherapy , pediatric cancer , cancer , febrile neutropenia , prospective cohort study , complication , surgery , intensive care medicine , antibiotics , population , environmental health , microbiology and biotechnology , biology
Background Fever in severe chemotherapy‐induced neutropenia (FN) is the most frequent manifestation of a potentially lethal complication of current intensive chemotherapy regimens. This study aimed at establishing models predicting the risk of FN, and of FN with bacteremia, in pediatric cancer patients. Methods In a single‐centre cohort study, characteristics potentially associated with FN and episodes of FN were retrospectively extracted from charts. Poisson regression accounting for chemotherapy exposure time was used for analysis. Prediction models were constructed based on a derivation set of two thirds of observations, and validated based on the remaining third of observations. Results In 360 pediatric cancer patients diagnosed and treated for a cumulative chemotherapy exposure time of 424 years, 629 FN were recorded (1.48 FN per patient per year, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.37–1.61), 145 of them with bacteremia (23% of FN; 0.34; 0.29–0.40). More intensive chemotherapy, shorter time since diagnosis, bone marrow involvement, central venous access device (CVAD), and prior FN were significantly and independently associated with a higher risk to develop both FN and FN with bacteremia. The prediction models explained more than 30% of the respective risks. Conclusions The two models predicting FN and FN with bacteremia were based on five easily accessible clinical variables. Before clinical application, they need to be validated by prospective studies. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2008;51:778–783. © 2008 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.