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Evaluating the effects of automobile safety regulation
Author(s) -
Graham John D.,
Garber Steven
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
journal of policy analysis and management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.898
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1520-6688
pISSN - 0276-8739
DOI - 10.1002/pam.4050030204
Subject(s) - safer , legislation , statistical analysis , risk analysis (engineering) , business , public economics , actuarial science , computer science , computer security , economics , political science , law , statistics , mathematics
Automobile safety standards adopted because of federal legislation have, according to many researchers, failed to save lives; safer cars, they infer, induce more dangerous driving. Results from the major study suggesting this conclusion are shown, however, to be quite sensitive to reasonable changes in the empirical model. An alternative statistical analysis of death rates supports a very different conclusion: Safety standards have saved tens of thousands of lives during the 1970s. More broadly, the article illustrates some general pitfalls in using statistical results in policy analysis, and how they can be avoided.