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Affirmative action, duality of error, and the consequences of mispredicting the academic performance of african american college applicants
Author(s) -
Mumpower Jeryl L.,
Nath Radhika,
Stewart Thomas R.
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
journal of policy analysis and management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.898
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1520-6688
pISSN - 0276-8739
DOI - 10.1002/pam.1040
Subject(s) - affirmative action , african american , false positive paradox , racial bias , selection (genetic algorithm) , psychology , actuarial science , demography , statistics , political science , racism , mathematics , law , economics , sociology , computer science , ethnology , artificial intelligence
The implications of different potential affirmative action policies depend on three factors: selection ratefrom the applicant pool, base rate of qualified applicants, and accuracy of performance predictions. A series ofanalyses was conducted under various assumptions concerning affirmative action plans, causes of racialdifferences in average college admissions test scores, and racial differences in accuracy of performancepredictions. Evidence suggesting a lower level of predictive accuracy for African Americans implies that, undera program of affirmative action, both proportionately more false positives (matriculated students who donot succeed) and proportionately more false negatives (rejected applicants who could havesucceeded) will be found among African American applicants. Unless equivalent levels of predictive accuracyare achieved for both groups, no admission policy can be fair simultaneously to majority group applicants andAfrican American applicants. © 2002 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.