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For richer or for poorer: Marriage as an antipoverty strategy
Author(s) -
Thomas Adam,
Sawhill Isabel
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
journal of policy analysis and management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.898
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1520-6688
pISSN - 0276-8739
DOI - 10.1002/pam.10075
Subject(s) - poverty , microsimulation , unobservable , child poverty , population , demography , demographic economics , economic shortage , poverty rate , economics , psychology , sociology , economic growth , econometrics , government (linguistics) , linguistics , philosophy , transport engineering , engineering
Abstract This study examines the effects of changes in family structure on children's economic well‐being.An initial shift‐share analysis indicates that, had the proportion of children living infemale‐headed families remained constant since 1970, the 1998 child poverty rate would have been 4.4percentage points lower than its actual 1998 level of 18.3 percent. The March 1999 Current Population Survey isthen used to conduct a second analysis in which marriages are simulated between single mothers and demographicallysimilar, unrelated males. The microsimulation analysis addresses some of the shortcomings of theshift‐share approach by making it possible to account for the possibility of a shortage of marriageablemen, to control for unobservable differences between married men and women and their unmarried counterparts, andto measure directly the effects of increases in marriage on the economic well‐being of children. Resultsfrom the microsimulation analysis suggest that, had the proportion of children living in female‐headedfamilies remained constant since 1970, the child poverty rate would have been 3.4 percentage points lower than itsactual 1998 level. Among children whose mother participated in a simulated marriage, the poverty rate would havefallen by almost two‐thirds. © 2002 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.