Premium
Using models that incorporate uncertainty
Author(s) -
Caulkins Jonathan P.
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
journal of policy analysis and management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.898
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1520-6688
pISSN - 0276-8739
DOI - 10.1002/pam.10058
Subject(s) - citation , exposition (narrative) , library science , sociology , history , political science , computer science , art , literature
What does a practicing policy analyst need to know about using models that incorporate uncertainty? One could write volumes focusing only on models that produce specific numeric forecasts (as opposed to conceptual models that address uncertainty qualitatively). But in the 21st century sound bites are more useful. In short: The world is uncertain; but sampling variability isn’t the driver; and so there is no excuse not to simulate. The real challenge, though, is to communicate effectively about models that incorporate uncertainty.