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Epidemiological model for India's COVID ‐19 pandemic
Author(s) -
Youkta Kumari,
Paramanik Rajendra Narayan
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of public affairs
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.221
H-Index - 20
eISSN - 1479-1854
pISSN - 1472-3891
DOI - 10.1002/pa.2639
Subject(s) - covid-19 , pandemic , epidemiology , virology , geography , medicine , outbreak , infectious disease (medical specialty) , disease , pathology
This study aims to analyse the effectiveness of the lockdown measure taken to control the transmission of COVID‐19 in India by examining the peak of the epidemic pre and post the adoption of stringent lockdown from 25 March 2020. Susceptible‐exposed‐infectious‐recovered (SEIR) model has been developed to trace the peak of the outbreak. The study suggests that with the implementation of lockdown the peak of epidemic in India has delayed by two and a half month. Before lockdown peak was examined in end of May 2020 but post lockdown, it is expected to arrive in mid‐August 2020. Thus lockdown measures has delayed the arrival of peak of epidemic which would be helpful in preparing the healthcare system in advance, to tackle worst situation if arises in future.