Probabilistic nonconvex constrained optimization with fixed number of function evaluations

Summary A methodology is proposed for the efficient solution of probabilistic nonconvex constrained optimization problems with uncertain. Statistical properties of the underlying stochastic generator are characterized from an initial statistical sample of function evaluations. A diffusion manifold over the initial set of data points is first identified and an associated basis computed. The joint probability density function of this initial set is estimated using a kernel density model and an Itô stochastic differential equation (ISDE) constructed with this model as its invariant measure. This ISDE is adapted to fluctuate around the manifold yielding additional joint realizations of the uncertain parameters, design variables, and function values, which are obtained as solutions of the ISDE. The expectations in the objective function and constraints are then accurately evaluated without performing additional function evaluations. The methodology brings together novel ideas from manifold learning and stochastic Hamiltonian dynamics to tackle an outstanding challenge in stochastic optimization. Three examples are presented to highlight different aspects of the proposed methodology.