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Reliability analysis for multidisciplinary systems with the mixture of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties
Author(s) -
Tao Y. R.,
Han X.,
Duan S. Y.,
Jiang C.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
international journal for numerical methods in engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.421
H-Index - 168
eISSN - 1097-0207
pISSN - 0029-5981
DOI - 10.1002/nme.4587
Subject(s) - uncertainty quantification , multidisciplinary approach , reliability (semiconductor) , mathematics , bayes' theorem , random variable , probability density function , nonlinear system , piecewise , propagation of uncertainty , mathematical optimization , bayesian probability , computer science , statistics , mathematical analysis , social science , power (physics) , physics , sociology , quantum mechanics
SUMMARY Epistemic and aleatory uncertain variables always exist in multidisciplinary system simultaneously and can be modeled by probability and evidence theories, respectively. The propagation of uncertainty through coupled subsystem and the strong nonlinearity of the multidisciplinary system make the reliability analysis difficult and computational cost expensive. In this paper, a novel reliability analysis procedure is proposed for multidisciplinary system with epistemic and aleatory uncertain variables. First, the probability density function of the aleatory variables is assumed piecewise uniform distribution based on Bayes method, and approximate most probability point is solved by equivalent normalization method. Then, important sampling method is used to calculate failure probability and its variance and variation coefficient. The effectiveness of the procedure is demonstrated by two numerical examples. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.