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Analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID‐19 via closed‐form solutions of a susceptible‐infectious‐quarantined‐diseased model with a quarantine‐adjusted incidence function
Author(s) -
Naz Rehana,
AlRaeei Marwan
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
mathematical methods in the applied sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.719
H-Index - 65
eISSN - 1099-1476
pISSN - 0170-4214
DOI - 10.1002/mma.7481
Subject(s) - quarantine , epidemic model , covid-19 , mathematics , incidence (geometry) , ordinary differential equation , infectious disease (medical specialty) , transmission (telecommunications) , function (biology) , statistics , demography , medicine , differential equation , disease , computer science , biology , mathematical analysis , environmental health , population , telecommunications , geometry , pathology , evolutionary biology , sociology
We analyze the disease control and prevention strategies in a susceptible‐infectious‐quarantined‐diseased (SIQD) model with a quarantine‐adjusted incidence function. We have established the closed‐form solutions for all the variables of SIQD model with a quarantine‐adjusted incidence function provided β ≠ γ + α by utilizing the classical techniques of solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The epidemic peak and time required to attain this peak are provided in closed form. We have provided closed‐form expressions for force of infection and rate at which susceptible becomes infected. The management of epidemic perceptive using control and prevention strategies is explained as well. The epidemic starts when ρ 0 > 1, the peak of epidemic appears when number of infected attains peak value whenρ 0 = 1 , and the disease dies out ρ 0 < 1. We have provided the comparison of estimated and actual epidemic peak of COVID‐19 in Pakistan. The forecast of epidemic peak for the United states, Brazil, India, and the Syrian Arab Republic is given as well.