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Evaluating the potential of vaccine‐induced type replacement for high‐risk human papillomaviruses
Author(s) -
Saldaña Fernando,
Barradas Ignacio
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
mathematical methods in the applied sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.719
H-Index - 65
eISSN - 1099-1476
pISSN - 0170-4214
DOI - 10.1002/mma.5932
Subject(s) - vaccination , cervical cancer , immunology , virology , human papillomavirus , medicine , metapopulation , cancer , competition (biology) , biology , environmental health , population , ecology , biological dispersal
Persistent infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is the main cause of cervical cancer. Current HPV vaccines protect against both HPV‐16 and ‐18, which are known to cause approximately 70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide. These vaccines have shown to be highly effective in preventing infection by their targeted types. However, there is a broad diversity of HPV types not targeted by the vaccines, and there is controversy about a possible increase in the prevalence of these non‐targeted types after a vaccination program. Here, we propose a within‐host metapopulation model to study the possibility of vaccine‐induced type replacement for oncogenic types. It is generally believed that the theoretical possibility of type replacement strongly depends on the existence of natural type competition mechanisms. Nevertheless, our results suggest that type replacement is viable at the within‐host level if the degree of cross‐protection induced by the vaccine is low, even if there is no underlying competition among HPV types. Consequently, the impact of current HPV vaccines at both the immunological and epidemiological levels rely upon the level of cross‐protection.