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A fractional order epidemic model and simulation for avian influenza dynamics
Author(s) -
Ye Xingyang,
Xu Chuanju
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
mathematical methods in the applied sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.719
H-Index - 65
eISSN - 1099-1476
pISSN - 0170-4214
DOI - 10.1002/mma.5690
Subject(s) - epidemic model , uniqueness , mathematics , basic reproduction number , influenza a virus subtype h5n1 , stability (learning theory) , fractional calculus , population , nonlinear system , order (exchange) , mathematical analysis , demography , biology , computer science , physics , virology , virus , finance , quantum mechanics , machine learning , sociology , economics
We present a nonlinear fractional order epidemic model to investigate the spreading dynamical behavior of the avian influenza. The population of the model contains susceptible individuals, asymptomatic but infective latent individuals, and infective individuals. We first establish the existence, uniqueness, nonnegativity, and positive invariance of the solution, then we study the reproduction number of the model and the stability of the disease‐free equilibrium. We observe that the reproduction number varies with the order of the fractional derivative ν . In terms of epidemics, this suggests that varying ν induces a change in the avian's epidemic status. Furthermore, we derive the sufficient conditions for the existence and the stability of the endemic equilibrium. Finally, we carry out some numerical simulations to validate the analytical results. We find from simulations that the solution of the fractional order model tends to a stationary state over a longer period of time with decreasing the value of the fractional derivative, and the size of epidemic decreases with decreasing ν .