Open AccessTropical cyclones in the south‐west Indian Ocean: Track prediction and verification of the UKMO model for 1991–92
Author(s) -
Vermeulen Jan H
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1002/met.5060020304
Subject(s) - tropical cyclone , climatology , track (disk drive) , environmental science , meteorology , indian ocean , geography , geology , oceanography , computer science , operating system
The aim of this paper is to evaluate tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office model in the south‐west Indian Ocean for 1991–92. These results are then compared with similar results for 1989–90 and 1990–91. Displacement errors are used for the evaluation of TC track predictions of individual TCs for forecast days 1 to 5. The Dvorak‐number is used to determine TC intensity. The skill of the numerical weather prediction model of the UKMO varies from high for the intense TCs to low for the weak TCs. Similar results were found for the western North Pacific by other researchers and is probably caused by deficiencies in the bogussing techniques. The weak TCs Davilia, Bryna and Celesta were forecast by only 18% of the model runs. For days 1, 2 and 3 the seasonal mean TC track forecast errors of 1991–92 compare well with those from 1989–90 and 1990–91.