Open AccessOn the ‘state of the art’ in local weather forecasting
Author(s) -
Balzer K
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1002/met.5060010206
Subject(s) - meteorology , aviation , range (aeronautics) , weather forecasting , computer science , climatology , econometrics , consensus forecast , order (exchange) , probabilistic forecasting , tropical cyclone forecast model , environmental science , operations research , geography , business , economics , mathematics , artificial intelligence , engineering , finance , geology , aerospace engineering , probabilistic logic
Based partly on more than 20 years of evaluating local weather forecasts in Germany, a comprehensive analysis of the verification results of synoptic, statistical and short‐ and medium‐range forecasts was carried out in order to obtain some insight into the present ‘state of the art’ in local weather forecasting. This ‘state’ is characterised by (a) striking improvements in skill, especially for the three‐to‐six‐day period; (b) an absence of significant progress in very‐short‐range forecasting, especially for aviation purposes and rare events; (c) an important role for statistical interpretation of medium‐range forecasting products; (d) an increasing importance of direct model output for some short‐range predictands; and, finally, (e) the urgent necessity to combine all the relevant forecast information m an optimum manner in real time.