Open AccessA deep‐learning model to predict thunderstorms within 400 km 2 South Texas domains
Author(s) -
Kamangir Hamid,
Collins Waylon,
Tissot Philippe,
King Scott A.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1002/met.1905
Subject(s) - artificial neural network , deep learning , principal component analysis , computer science , thunderstorm , autoencoder , artificial intelligence , meteorology , numerical weather prediction , weather forecasting , logistic regression , machine learning , geography
A deep‐learning neural network (DLNN) model was developed to predict thunderstorm occurrence within 400 km 2 South Texas domains for up to 15 hr (±2 hr accuracy) in advance. The input features were chosen primarily from numerical weather prediction model output parameters/variables; cloud‐to‐ground lightning served as the target. The deep‐learning technique used was the stacked denoising autoencoder (SDAE) in order to create a higher order representation of the features. Logistic regression was then applied to the SDAE output to train the predictive model. An iterative technique was used to determine the optimal SDAE architecture. The performance of the optimized DLNN classifiers exceeded that of the corresponding shallow neural network models, a classifier via a combination of principal component analysis and logistic regression, and operational weather forecasters, based on the same data set.