Open AccessAn objective verification system for thunderstorm risk forecasts
Author(s) -
Brown Katie,
Buchanan Piers
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1002/met.1748
Subject(s) - thunderstorm , aviation , national weather service , computer science , meteorology , forecast verification , environmental science , operations research , forecast skill , geography , engineering , aerospace engineering
An objective verification system for the Met Office's 5‐day thunderstorm and cumulonimbus (CB) risk forecasts is described. The forecasts are designed specifically to forecast the impact of CB on aviation in the London Terminal Manoeuvring Area, known as the London TMA, and are produced by meteorologists at the Met Office. Challenges faced in developing the verification system resulting from the subjective nature of the forecasts themselves and the limitations of the data (from the UK Air Navigation Service Provider [UK ANSP]) available to assess the true impact on aviation are discussed. The forecasts include the likelihood of medium impact events as well as the likelihood of high impact events resulting from thunderstorms. A unique approach has been taken to verifying these forecasts which has involved working closely with the primary user, the UK ANSP. An objective verification system has been developed to assess the forecast accuracy across all lead times for high and medium impact events. This system provides the tools necessary for routine, year‐on‐year evaluation of the forecast performance.