Stochastic modelling of rainfall patterns across the U nited K ingdom

In the last 2 years several regions of the United Kingdom have experienced extended periods of heavy rainfall, most notably the south of E ngland over the winter of 2013–2014 and northern E ngland and much of S cotland during the winter of 2015–2016. Since extensive monthly regional rainfall data are available, this study develops statistical models for these regional rainfall series, estimates the seasonal patterns implied by them, assesses whether rainfall has become more unpredictable over time and uses these seasonal patterns to assess how unusually wet these recent months have actually been in terms of departures from the predictions of the models.